Holdrege, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

020
FXUS63 KGLD 241459
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
859 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lower visibilities today due to drizzle.

- Isolated thunderstorms today, main risk is hail up to quarter
  size.

- Similar weather pattern on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Challenging forecast given the key features that will affect storm
development are all elevated atop a somewhat deep saturated layer.
Am thinking models have the rain chances too high due to the rather
high potential for drizzle to occur today and tonight. Near term
models are either too high with the rainfall chances to start off
with, or are delaying the higher rain chances with each new model
run.

A low level jet nose is over the northwest part of the forecast
area. There is a cap in place so these developing showers should not
pose much of a threat. As the day progresses there should be some
elevated CAPE that is not capped off, primarily east of the CO
border. Given the setup, hail up to quarter size will be the main
threat with any storms that develop today.

May need to extend the higher rainfall chances to the west where the
low level jet nose is. However, that is also where the saturated
layer is not as deep. Will see how the current shower activity
progresses, then adjust as needed.

Meanwhile visibilities may fall this afternoon as lift increases in
the saturated layer as an upper level short wave trough moves over
the eastern half of the forecast area. This should allow for more
consistent drizzle/light rain to occur over the eastern half of the
forecast area.

Tonight the temperature lapse rates will not be as steep. This
should prohibit thunderstorms from forming over the forecast area.
However, elevated CAPE may not be capped off just south of the
forecast area.&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Fri May 23 2025

Latest satellite data shows clearing over far East CO, with
overcast sky to the east. Overhead an upper level short wave
trough was over the western cloud edge. This temperature
difference should serve to enhance the temperature gradient
along the frontal boundary. Surface winds also show some
convergence along the western cloud edge.

For the afternoon am anticipating storms forming along the
western edge of the clouds, the question is where will the cloud
edge be. During the latter half of the afternoon low level and
mid level helicity increase over Yuma County, extending
southeast along the frontal boundary. Meanwhile an upper level
short wave trough deepens over the boundary. The risk for
tornadoes increases into the evening. Wind gusts to around 70
MPH may occur with any storm too. By mid evening or so storms
should become more elevated. The first round of storms should
move southeast of the forecast area around midnight, if not
before.

Overnight the low level jet nose strengthens over the forecast area.
Elevated CAPE forms along this feature after midnight, along with
low CINH.  RAP and NAM models disagree with the placement of the
elevated CAPE.  Current forecast is a mixture of the two.  Storm
chances may be on the high side, however wherever storms form am
thinking there should be a group/line of them.  These storms may
produce hail up to baseball size, however two inch hail would seem
more likely for a maximum size.  These storms should shift out of
the forecast area by 7 AM CT.  Have moderate confidence these storms
will form.

Fog will form overnight, lasting into Saturday morning, with
visibility improving toward late morning.

Saturday the forecast area will be in the cooler air behind the cold
front.  This will be a similar pattern to tonight, with elevated
thunderstorms being a possibility.  The upper level pattern is not
as favorable during the morning as Friday night will be for elevated
storms. Therefore, confidence is on the low side.  If storms do form
overnight they should be east of the forecast area by 10 AM CT.
Toward late afternoon a deeper upper level short wave trough should
move in from the west. This may allow for more elevated storms to
form over the forecast area.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Fri May 23 2025

Saturday night a low level jet nose forms over the forecast area.
Elevated CAPE looks to still be in place, and there this rather deep
saturated layer in place.  Am thinking the models are a bit high
with the precipitation chances due to accounting for drizzle instead
of rain.  However, the broad lift over the forecast area does give
more confidence in higher chances for precipitation actually
happening.

Active weather pattern continues into the workweek as a long wave
trough moves onto the Plains.  Toward mid week the long wave trough
turns into a closed low over the Northern Plains.  South of the
closed low, the westerly flow is in a favorable position to send
upper level short wave troughs over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM MDT Fri May 23 2025

Flight categories at both KGLD and KMCK will lower to IFR during
the overnight hours with low ceilings and areas of fog and
drizzle. Both terminals will likely remain IFR through the
remainder of the TAF period once that occurs, with occasional
VLIFR conditions in fog, drizzle, and occasional rain showers.
There is a slight chance for an overnight thunderstorm at both
terminals as well, but confidence is low as to where they will
develop.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024/JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024