Holdrege, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

405
FXUS63 KGLD 041116
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
516 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog this morning with a Dense Fog Advisory in effect through
  11am MT. Some freezing drizzle is also possible across western
  portions of Kit Carson and Yuma counties this morning.

- About a 20-30% chance blowing snow will impact travel late
  Friday afternoon into the evening as colder temperatures push
  in. Little to no snow accumulation is currently forecast.

- Dry, warming trend expected to start Sunday and last through
  most of the next workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 318 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Upper level troughing continues to influence the weather for the Tri-
State area as moisture advection continues. The cold front which
moved through about 12-18 hours earlier from what was seen last
night is currently draped across eastern Colorado and did produce
another area of rain and snow showers which has since been weakening
as it is outrunning the speed of the cold front. This front should
then stall or move very slowly through the day acting as a
stationary boundary with the favored area for rain showers remaining
to the east of it. On the back side continued fog, stratus and
drizzle are forecast to be in place through at least the late
morning hours. Am thinking there is the potential for dense fog this
morning for locations along the advancing front as the wind will go
calm, low dew point depressions and a freshly saturated boundary
layer. Behind the front there may be some dense fog across Yuma and
Kit Carson counties as well as winds are forecast to be lighter
along with some clearing ongoing currently that should help the dew
point depressions remain around zero despite lower dew points
in wake of the front. With all of this said have went ahead and
issued a Dense Fog Advisory through 17Z for KS Highway 27 on
west for this potential. For the morning hours as well, RAP and
NAM omega shows around 3-5 microbars of lift along with some
isentropic support in the 290K level that makes me a little
concerned for drizzle and freezing drizzle with the better
potential for freezing drizzle across western portions of each
county. Since the front has been more progressive than guidance
shows, may need to keep an eye on a eastward expansion of this
threat.

As mentioned, do think the locales along and south of roughly a
Norton to Cheyenne Wells line have the best chance of rainfall
for today, however the rain doesn`t appear to be as heavy as
what occurred yesterday due to the lack of any additional jet
features as what was the case yesterday. Rainfall amounts of 0.2
to 0.4 inches seems to be the most likely where the rain can
persist the longest at. High temperatures as well have come
down as well into the upper 30s to upper 40s due to concerns of
the stratus/fog/rain/drizzle lasting for the majority of the
day.

This afternoon, stronger cold air advection does look to ensue along
the leading edge of an 850mb jet. This is where the potential for
better coverage of rain and eventually snow will ensue. The
combination of this jet and continued isentropic lift I do believe
will be enough forcing for at the minimum of scattered cellular
features of rain and snow as it moves to the south. There does
continue to be some signals of snow squall potential with SBCAPE and
unstable lapse rates in place across mainly eastern Colorado where
temperatures should be cold enough to support the full transition to
all snow quicker; but again this threat may extend further east
towards the Highway 27 corridor. At this time, any impacts,
should they occur will be spotty in nature due to the not
uniform forcing in place. The peak time for this threat looks to
be from 4pm-7pm MT. Behind this they may be enough additional
lift to keep at least some light snow ongoing so have added in
15-20%. Low temperatures will be the next story as they are
forecast to fall into the low 20s. However if clouds were to
clear faster then lows into the teens would be possible.

Saturday, a surface high will continue to push in wake of the front
with drier air following it allowing for some appearances of the sun
to return. High temperatures are forecast to continue to remain
chilly in the 40s along with breezy northerly winds gusting to 30
mph. The main story however for Saturday will be temperatures as
winds are forecast to wane as the nocturnal inversion sets in which
would lead to radiational cooling into at least the upper teens to
low 20s. The reasoning for not going colder quite yet with the
forecast is that winds are forecast to become more westerly which
climatologically does favor some steadiness in temperatures. How
quickly this occurs will dictate how cold we do go.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Sunday morning, the upper-level trough axis will continue exiting
the area as a ridge builds in from the west. This will start a dry,
warming trend through the rest of the long-term. Sunday looks to
only warm into the upper 50s, but by Tuesday, we should be seeing
temperatures warming back into the 70s. Wednesday and Thursday,
temperatures look to gradually warm even more, or remain steady-
state. Low 80s are possible Thursday and Friday, but we`re not
seeing any strong signs of southwesterly WAA. Low temperatures will
follow a similar trend; Sunday night, will cool to around 30F, by
Monday night, temperatures will only cool to around freezing, with
the rest of the period looks to remain above freezing.
Climatologically speaking, we are still likely to see freezing
temperatures return over the next few weeks as our average last
freeze dates are around the start of May.

There is a weak shortwave trough showing up Tuesday evening, leading
to a ~10% chance of rain. Current guidance shows fairly weak forcing
and moisture, and only over a narrow area which will likely occur
outside of the CWA. Locations along and north of U.S. 36 have the
best chance at seeing light showers Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours. No impacts are expected.

Thursday or Friday could see some near critical fire weather
conditions as the warm temperatures lower minimum RH values to the
upper teens. The NBM is showing northwesterly winds gusting around
20-23 kts in the afternoon. If a surface low moves across the area
and starts up an 850 mb LLJ from the southwest in the later half of
the week, temperatures could jump an extra 5-10 degrees, dropping RH
values into the low teens, and increasing winds by 5+ kts. This
would lead to a critical fire weather day. However, confidence for
this to occur is only around 15%.

List of acronyms
NBM - National Blend of Models
WAA - Warm Air Advection
PoP - Probability Of Precipitation
LLJ - Low Level Jet
RH  - Relative Humidity
F - Fahrenheit
mb - Millibar
kts - Knots
Z - Zulu time (UTC)
CWA - County Warning Area

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

IFR to LIFR conditions are forecast for the majority of the TAF
period. Fog, dense at times is forecast to continue for KGLD
with a lesser chance for dense at KMCK through around 15Z.
Increasing potential for showers at KMCK is forecast at times
throughout the day. More of the hit or miss variety of showers
is possible at KGLD but due to the hit and miss nature of them
felt a PROB30 would be more representative. Winds are forecast
to increase through the evening as an 850mb jet moves through
the area along with drier air, with VFR conditions returning for
the last few hours of the period, although some low clouds may
remain.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning for
     KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg